Soochow Securities Chen Li: GDP growth rate in the second half of the quarter is expected to rebound to more than 5%
On the morning of April 17, the economic data for the first quarter was released, and the National Bureau of Statistics news called Mao Shengyong said that preliminary calculations showed that GDP fell by 6 in the first quarter.8%.Negative 6.Is the 8% quarterly GDP growth rate expected?In the second quarter, will there be some performance in the economic situation in the second half?How will the 2020 annual GDP target be set?”Negative GDP growth in the first quarter of this year is completely within expectations,” Chen Li, chief economist at Soochow Securities, said in an interview with half a year, the growth rate may rise to the normal level of 5% -6% in half a year.”Sauna Night Net: Is the economy experiencing negative growth in the first quarter of this year, is it within the expected range?”How to explain the GDP data for the first quarter?Chen Li: The negative GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was completely within expectation.Statistics Bureau officials announced that the total industrial added value of January and February showed at least significant fluctuations. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, February basically stagnated and slowly recovered in March, so the first quarter GDP was negative 6.The 8% growth rate is fully within expectations.Due to the impact of the epidemic, GDP fell by 6 in the first quarter of 2020.The 8% growth rate is understandable and very reasonable.That being the case, because the overseas epidemic spread in March and April, it is expected that the second quarter will also encounter relatively large distortions and impacts, but I believe the epidemic will always pass.After the epidemic, the situation of resuming work and resuming production in China has risen on schedule from March to April. It is expected that overseas will gradually recover in the third quarter of this year.Although China’s GDP may not perform well in the first and second quarters, there is reason to believe that the quarterly GDP can return to a growth rate of more than 5% in the second half of the year.Sauna Night Net: How has economic performance changed since April?Chen Li: Since April, domestic production has resumed normal operation, and the production capacity has been climbing.In mid-March, power generation and coal consumption have returned to normal levels during the same period last year, and have shown positive growth over the years.However, due to the expansion of the overseas epidemic, external demand will be extremely shrinking and interrupted in March, April and even the entire second quarter.It is expected that imports and exports in the second quarter, especially exports, will face a decline of more than 50% each year, which will also have a new adverse impact on the economies of developing countries.Sauna Night: How is the economic data in the second quarter expected to perform?The economic situation in 2020 is expected to have some performance?Chen Li: It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter will reach about 3%. In the second half of the year, the growth rate in 10 years may rise to the normal level of 5% -6%.Judging from the preliminary economic growth rate, the first quarter is definitely the lowest, the second, third and fourth quarters will gradually pick up, and there are still great challenges in the second quarter.Sauna Night: How to determine the 2020 annual GDP target?How to achieve the annual economic goals?What other areas can be used?Chen Li: At present, the two sessions have not participated and have not yet confirmed the task of the 2020 annual economic work target.However, it is very difficult to achieve the goal of doubling GDP per capita by 2020 relative to 2010, and it is very difficult to achieve the goal of doubling GDP per capita by 2020 compared with 2010. If this goal is to be achieved, the annual GDP growth rate for 2020 is required to reach 5.3% -5.Between 6%.At present, this is almost impossible, if the year is to be 5.3% to 5.6% means that the average growth rate in the second, third and fourth quarter will exceed 9%, which will be very difficult.So I think in terms of high probability, it will give up the goal of doubling.But at least at the same time, we must maintain stability, protect employment, and protect the well-being of residents. Therefore, the goal of all-round poverty alleviation, a well-off society, and helping people’s incomes should not change.Therefore, we doubt that such a growth demand of 4% -5% GDP growth will be pursued in 2020, especially the quarterly GDP growth rate in the second half of the year will exceed 5%, which is also a very important goal.The overall target for this year is to increase employment by 11 million, and GDP growth can solve the 2.2 million employment, so in order to achieve this 11 million employment goal, GDP growth needs to reach about 5%.From the experience of last year, the main pressure of employment is in the second half of the year, and the employment digested in the third and fourth quarters accounts for about 70% of the unemployed employment, which requires that the quarterly GDP growth rate in the second half of the year must exceed 5% or even moreHigher than 6%.Therefore, reducing the annual GDP growth target of more than 5% is to restore the economy to a normal level, and can effectively relieve employment pressure, maintain social stability, and ensure the stability of residents’ income.At present, certain employment pressures can be resolved by stimulating consumer service industries on a larger scale.Sauna Nightnet: Since the outbreak, various macro policies have been intensively issued by relevant parties. What suggestions do you have for the direction of the following policies?Chen Li: Since the outbreak, many macro policies have been issued.Through interactive investigations with companies including large-scale listed companies and small and medium-sized enterprises, we found that the implementation of monetary policy is relatively smooth and immediate, such as the release of loans and the decline in loan interest rates.At present, small and medium-sized enterprises everywhere can effectively obtain bailout funds and bailout loans with low interest rates.However, there are still some unsatisfactory fiscal policies, mainly because the local budgets have been approved by the two local councils, and the two local councils have no time to adjust before the outbreak.If adjustments are made to the budgets of various regions, it will involve the budget plans formulated by the National People’s Congress and the National People’s Congress. The important reason for the failure of the fiscal policy is that the National People’s Congress and the National People’s Congress have not replaced them, and no people’s congress has approved the budget plans.This also led to the NDRC’s current lack of the new crown epidemic situation and this budget plan can be implemented for additional investment.After the National Conference of the Two Sessions approves the national budget, local governments will readjust their budget plans and add infrastructure investment, which will also bring about a rebound in GDP growth in the second half of the year.So overall, we doubt that there will be a more obvious rebound in economic growth in the second half of the year.Sauna, Ye Wang Zhang Siyuan Editor Wang Jinyu proofread Zhang Yanjun